Mandal 2.0 The Caste Census, Sub-Quotas, and the Battle for the 50% Cap
Mandal 2.0 The Caste Census, Sub-Quotas, and the Battle for the 50% Cap Date: January 13, 2026
Introduction: The Return of "Jitni Abadi, Utna Haq" For three decades, Indian politics orbited around the "Mandal vs. Kamandal" binary—caste justice vs. religious consolidation. In 2026, that binary has fractured into something far more complex. The slogan "Jitni Abadi, Utna Haq" (Rights proportional to population), once a rhetorical flourish, has become the central demand of the opposition alliance.
The catalyst was the Bihar Caste Survey released in late 2023, which revealed that Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) constituted nearly 63% of the state’s population. This shattered the assumption that the 27% OBC quota was "sufficient."
However, the real earthquake came in August 2024, when a seven-judge bench of the Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict permitting the sub-classification of Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs). This judgment allowed states to create separate quotas for the "most backward" among the Dalits, effectively acknowledging that the benefits of reservation had been cornered by a few dominant sub-castes.
This article dissects the twin storms of 2025-26: the clamor for a National Caste Census to breach the 50% reservation ceiling, and the internal "Civil War" within the Dalit community over the new sub-quotas.
I. The Sub-Classification Verdict: Breaking the Monolith To understand the current turmoil, we must understand the "Creamy Layer" debate that has now entered the SC/ST sphere. For decades, the concept of a "Creamy Layer" (excluding the wealthy from quotas) applied only to OBCs. Dalits were treated as a homogenous block, united by the historical trauma of untouchability.
The "Dominant vs. Deprived" Divide The Supreme Court’s 2024 verdict changed this. It recognized a painful reality: within the SC category, certain castes (like the Jatavs in UP or the Malas in Andhra) had accessed education and jobs at much higher rates than others (like the Valmikis or Madigas). The Court ruled that states can give preferential treatment to the "weakest of the weak."
The 2025 Implementation Chaos Throughout 2025, states like Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab raced to implement this.
The Madiga Victory: In Telangana, the Madiga community, which had agitated for 30 years for internal reservations, finally saw the state government carve out a 6% sub-quota specifically for them within the 15% SC quota.
The Backlash: This triggered massive counter-protests by the "dominant" Dalit groups, who argued that "Untouchability has no hierarchy." They claimed that sub-classification is a divide-and-rule tactic to fracture Dalit political unity.
As we move into the 2026 election cycles, this has created a new voting dynamic. Political parties can no longer rely on a consolidated "Dalit Vote Bank." They must now choose sides: Are they with the "Aspirational Dalits" (the sub-classified poor) or the "Established Dalits"?
II. The Caste Census: The Key to the 50% Lock While the sub-quota battle is internal, the Caste Census battle is existential. In the Indra Sawhney judgment (1992), the Supreme Court capped total reservations at 50%. The argument was that efficiency and merit cannot be completely sacrificed.
The "63%" Argument The opposition argues that if OBCs/SCs/STs make up 75-80% of India's population (as suggested by Bihar and subsequent surveys in Odisha and Karnataka), capping their opportunities at 50% is undemocratic. They demand a National Caste Census—a headcounts of every caste in India—to provide the empirical data needed to challenge the 50% cap in the Supreme Court.
The Government's Dilemma The central government has resisted a national census, fearing it will open a Pandora's box.
Administrative Nightmare: Counting thousands of sub-castes, with different names in different districts, is logistically fraught.
Political Fragmentation: A census might reveal that certain powerful OBC groups (who are politically dominant) are actually numerically smaller than thought, while fragmented EBCs are the true majority. This would disrupt the traditional vote-bank calculus of every major party.
However, bowing to pressure, the government has hinted at including a "Social Justice Metric" in the delayed decadal census (now effectively the 2026 Census), though the exact methodology remains a state secret.
III. The "Private Sector" Frontier The wildest card in this deck is the demand for reservation in the private sector. As the public sector shrinks (with the privatization of PSUs and the rise of the gig economy), the value of a government job quota is diminishing.
The Haryana/Karnataka Model: In 2024-25, we saw states like Karnataka and Haryana attempt to mandate "locals first" or "social diversity" quotas in the private sector. While courts have struck down crude "75% local" laws, the political pressure on corporations to hire "diversely" is mounting.
In late 2025, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) voluntarily released a "Diversity Disclosure" report, showing that SC/ST representation in corporate leadership remains below 5%. Activists are using this very data to demand legislative quotas for the private sector—a move that industry captains warn would kill the "India Story" and drive foreign investment to Vietnam.
IV. The "Maratha" and "Patidar" Factor The reservation fire is not limited to the backward castes. The "Forward Castes" are agitated too. The Marathas in Maharashtra, the Patidars in Gujarat, and the Jats in Haryana—traditionally land-owning, agrarian communities—are demanding OBC status. Why? Because the agrarian crisis has made farming unviable, and they feel locked out of the government job market.
The Jarange-Patil Phenomenon The agitation led by Manoj Jarange-Patil in Maharashtra in 2024-25 showed the power of this anger. The state government was forced to issue millions of "Kunbi" (OBC) certificates to Marathas, effectively diluting the OBC pool. This has pitted the "Original OBCs" (who feel their share is being stolen) against the "New OBCs." In 2026, this conflict between the traditional backward and the newly backward is the single biggest law-and-order challenge in western India.
V. The Women's Quota: The Silent Revolution Amidst the noise of caste, a quiet revolution is unfolding. The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (Women’s Reservation Act), passed in 2023, is set to be implemented after the delimitation exercise. This act reserves 33% of seats in the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies for women.
The "Kota within Kota" Demand The intersectionality debate has hit this law too. Opposition parties have demanded a "Quota within Quota"—i.e., out of the 33% reserved for women, there should be specific sub-reservations for SC, ST, and OBC women. They argue that without this, the 33% seats will be filled by upper-caste, urban women, leaving the Dalit woman doubly marginalized (by gender and caste).
VI. The "EWS" Paradox Finally, there is the Economically Weaker Section (EWS) quota. Introduced in 2019, this provides 10% reservation to the poor among the "General Category" (Upper Castes). Ironically, while the SC/ST/OBC quotas are based on historic discrimination, the EWS quota is based on current income. Social justice activists argue that EWS is a "Backdoor Reservation" for Brahmins and Thakurs. However, for the destitute among the upper castes, it has been a lifeline. In 2026, the Supreme Court is hearing petitions challenging the income limit (₹8 lakh/year) for EWS, with critics arguing it is too high (covering nearly 90% of the population) and makes a mockery of the term "Economically Weaker."
Conclusion: The Fractured Republic? The "Caste Matrix" of 2026 is a tangled web. We have Dalits fighting Dalits over sub-classification. We have OBCs fighting Marathas over inclusion. We have the South fighting the North over delimitation. And we have the Private Sector fighting the State over efficiency.
The dream of a "Casteless India" seems further away than ever. Instead, we are moving towards a "Hyper-Casted India," where every citizen’s primary identity is their specific sub-caste code.
Proponents argue this is necessary—that we must count the wounds to heal them. They say true equality can only come when representation matches the population. Critics warn that we are balkanizing the nation—that by slicing the pie into ever-smaller pieces, we are forgetting to bake a bigger pie.
As the political rhetoric heats up for the next cycle, one thing is certain: Caste is no longer just a social reality in India; it is the only political reality that matters